Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Matisse Bobichon

Highlights

• • Current market heavily favors Bobichon (1.22) but Research win-rates do not justify that margin
• • Pavlos needs only ~26.5% true chance to be +EV; our 33% estimate gives significant overlay

Pros

• + Clear mathematical overlay at current odds if Pavlos's true chance is near his career win rate
• + Clay surface is represented in both profiles, reducing surface-based mismatch risk

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited head-to-head/context in the Research increase uncertainty
• - Market may be pricing matchup details or freshness/injury not present in the provided data

Details

We identify value on Pavlos Tsitsipas (home) because the market prices Matisse Bobichon as an overwhelming favorite (1.22, implied ~82%) while the underlying data in the Research do not support such a large gap. Pavlos has a 16-32 (33%) career win rate across surfaces in the supplied profile and has played clay; Matisse's record is 9-13 (41%) on similar surfaces but the sample sizes are small and recent form for both is weak. Using a conservative true win probability for Pavlos of 33% (based on his career win rate in the Research), the break-even decimal price is ~3.03, which is materially below the current bookmaker price of 3.77. That yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.33 * 3.77 - 1 ≈ +0.244). Risks include small sample sizes, limited head-to-head/context data, and the possibility the market is pricing in matchup details not present in the Research, but on the information provided we find clear overlay on the Pavlos moneyline.

Key factors

• • Bookmakers imply Bobichon ~82% win chance (1.22) which appears overstated versus supplied records
• • Pavlos career win rate in Research is ~33%, above the 26.5% implied by 3.77 odds threshold
• • Both players show recent poor form and small sample sizes — increases volatility and market inefficiency