Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Rodenas ≈ 89.9%; our estimate ≈ 75%
• • Required fair odds for value on Rodenas would be ≥ 1.333 — current 1.112 is too short

Pros

• + Clear gap between market price and our probability estimate makes the value decision straightforward
• + Both players have clay experience, reducing uncertainty from surface mismatch

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited data introduce estimation risk
• - No available price gives positive EV, so the match offers no profitable entry at current quotes

Details

The market heavily favors Pedro Rodenas at 1.112 (implied ~89.9%). We estimate Rodenas' true win probability closer to 75% given his better recent win-rate in a small sample, demonstrated clay activity, and Pavlos Tsitsipas' inferior overall record (16-32) and mixed form. At our 75% estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.333; the current 1.112 offers a negative expected value (EV = 0.75 * 1.112 - 1 = -0.166). The underdog price on Pavlos (5.79) would require a much higher true upset probability (~17.3%) than we believe is realistic given the head-to-head context and recent form. Therefore no side offers positive value at the posted prices.

Key factors

• • Rodenas has a stronger recent win-rate and more clay match activity in the available sample
• • Pavlos' overall record is weak (16-32) and recent results are mixed, reducing upset likelihood
• • Market price for Rodenas (1.112) implies ~90% which significantly overstates his chance versus our 75% estimate