Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.685) ~59.3% vs our estimate 55.0%
• • Required decimal odds to justify a home bet: >=1.818

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home, suggesting bookmakers see an edge
• + Steiner's sub-50% career win rate makes backing the away less appealing without stronger form data

Cons

• - Insufficient data on Pawel Juszczak (home) and no H2H or grass-form details
• - Current market price for the home is shorter than our conservative fair value, yielding negative EV

Details

Market prices show the home (Pawel Juszczak) as the favorite at 1.685 (implied ~59.3%). Our independent view, given only the available research, is more conservative: Maik Steiner's career win rate (70-96, ~42% overall) and limited recent results do not give confidence that the market is underestimating him; conversely we have no performance, ranking or surface-specific data for Juszczak to justify backing the favorite at current prices. Using a cautious estimated true probability for the home of 55.0% produces a required fair decimal price of 1.818 to break even. Current home odds 1.685 are shorter than that threshold, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.55*1.685 - 1 = -0.073). With scarce data, lack of H2H, and uncertainty around grass form, we do not see value at the quoted prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Maik Steiner's overall career win rate is ~42%, indicating limited baseline winning probability
• • Surface is grass but we lack surface-specific form data for both players, increasing uncertainty
• • Market favors the home at 1.685; our conservative fair price for the home is ~1.818, so current price lacks value