Highlights

• • Pawit: larger sample size and better hard-court record
• • Market implies slightly more probability than our model supports, so no positive EV

Pros

• + Pawit shows greater experience and a superior win-loss record over a larger number of matches
• + Both players have recent hard-court matches in the same event context, so surface impact is neutral

Cons

• - Dong Ju's small sample size introduces uncertainty that could swing probabilities in either direction
• - Market is tight; small model mispricing means limited margin for profitable bets

Details

We estimate Pawit Sornlaksup is the stronger player based on a larger match sample (38 matches, 21-17) and a modestly better win rate on hard courts compared with Dong Ju Kim's limited sample (7 matches, 3-4). The market prices (Home 1.599, Away 2.22) imply ~62.5% for Pawit and ~45.0% for Dong Ju; our assessment gives Pawit a true win probability around 60%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.667, which is longer than the current market price of 1.599, so there is no positive expected value on either side at the available prices.

Key factors

• • Pawit has a substantially larger match sample and a higher overall win rate on hard courts
• • Dong Ju Kim has very limited recent match data (7 matches) making his form projection less reliable
• • Current market price for Pawit (1.599) is shorter than our fair price (~1.667), removing value