Highlights

• • Home price 2.25 implies 44.4% — below our 52% estimate
• • Break-even odds needed are ~1.923, well below current 2.25

Pros

• + Stronger career win rate and larger sample size
• + Recent play at the same hard-court venue supports form/surface edge

Cons

• - Limited recent-match detail and small-sample noise can affect true probability
• - Market may incorporate factors not present in the provided research (e.g., late injury or head-to-head) which we cannot evaluate

Details

We find value on the home player Pawit Sornlaksup. Pawit has a substantially larger match sample (71 matches) and a stronger career win rate (~58%) compared with Geun Jun Kim (32 matches, ~34% wins). Pawit also has recent matches at this same Nakhon Pathom hard event indicating familiarity with the venue and surface. The market prices the away player at 1.637 (implied ~61% win probability), which appears to overstate Kim's likelihood given his weaker career win rate and more sparse recent activity. At the current home price of 2.25 (implied 44.4%), even a conservative true win probability estimate in the low 50s yields positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing Pawit because the required fair odds to break even (~1.923) are well below the available 2.25.

Key factors

• • Pawit’s stronger overall win rate (41-30, ~57.8%) vs Kim’s record (11-21, ~34.4%)
• • Pawit has recent matches at the same Nakhon Pathom hard event (familiarity with venue/surface)
• • Market is favoring the away player at 1.637 despite weaker career/sample metrics