Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Home = 10.4% vs our estimate 18%
• • Positive EV at current odds (EV ≈ +0.726)

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market price and our probability estimate
• + Simple, clear value math: required fair odds (5.556) are well below current 9.59

Cons

• - Research is sparse and shows similar weak records for all players — high model uncertainty
• - No H2H or surface/dominance data in the provided sources to strongly support the upset

Details

Market prices make the away pair overwhelming favorites (implied ~91% for Away, ~10.4% for Home). The available player profiles show nearly identical, modest doubles records (roughly 10-21) and recent form that does not clearly favor one pair by the margin implied by the market. With no head-to-head data or surface advantage shown in the research, the market's 9.59 decimal for the Home side appears mispriced. We estimate a more realistic chance for the Home team of about 18%; at current odds of 9.59 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.18 * 9.59 - 1 = 0.726). Given the substantial gap between market-implied probability (~10.4%) and our estimate (18%), this represents a value opportunity, but it is also subject to high uncertainty because the underlying data are sparse and show similar player records.

Key factors

• • Market implies only ~10.4% for Home (1/9.59) which is extreme given the research
• • Player profiles show very similar win-loss records (~10-21) and no clear advantage shown
• • No head-to-head or surface advantage in the provided data to justify the heavy favorite