Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Bruno Kuzuhara
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Pedro Boscardin Dias is the deserved favorite but 1.43 is too short versus our 64% estimate, producing a negative EV.
Highlights
- • Pedro Boscardin Dias has a clear career win-rate advantage
- • Current favorite odds (1.43) are shorter than our fair price (~1.563)
Pros
- + Home has stronger overall record and more matches played this span
- + Both players' recent results show instability, which favors the higher-win-rate player
Cons
- - Market price for the favorite is too short to offer positive value
- - Limited recent-match/context details and no H2H or confirmed surface for this specific match
Details
We compare the market prices (Home 1.43, Away 2.68) to an evidence-based win probability. Pedro Boscardin Dias has a materially better career win rate (47-28, ~62.7%) versus Bruno Kuzuhara (26-30, ~46.4%) and both players have experience on clay and hard, so surface does not materially flip the edge. Using those records and the recent mixed qualifying results, we estimate Pedro Boscardin Dias' true win probability at 64%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.563, which is longer than the offered favorite price 1.43, so the market price is overpriced against our model and generates a negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Home player has noticeably stronger career win percentage (47/75 ≈ 62.7%)
- • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no clear surface advantage in provided data
- • Market favorite price (1.43) implies ~69.9% — richer than our estimated 64% true probability