Pedro Martinez / Jaume Munar vs August Holmgren / Johannes Ingildsen

Highlights

• • Book implied home probability ~72.5% vs our estimate 66% (market appears overconfident).
• • Required fair decimal odds ~1.515; current 1.379 yields negative EV.

Pros

• + Home players have higher overall match counts and stronger individual records in the provided data
• + Market correctly identifies the home pair as favorites, consistent with relative experience

Cons

• - Doubles-specific form, pair chemistry, and surface/venue factors are not clearly established in the research
• - Current favorite price is too short — negative expected value at our probability estimate

Details

We assess the market price (Home 1.379) as too short to offer positive expected value after accounting for available information. Pedro Martinez and Jaume Munar are the more experienced pair overall in singles-level results (combined winning records and larger match counts), which explains the heavy market favoritism. However, doubles is a distinct format and the research does not provide clear doubles-specific results, pair history, or confirmed surface advantage. Johannes Ingildsen has extremely limited match exposure in the available data (only three matches), which increases variance but does not guarantee a low-probability outcome for the away pair. Given the uncertainty around doubles chemistry, the lack of clear surface/venue advantage, and mixed recent singles form for all four players, we estimate the true chance for the home pair at about 66%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.515, meaning the current quoted home price (1.379) offers negative expected value (EV = -0.0899 per unit). Therefore we do not recommend wagering at the present price.

Key factors

• • Home pair has greater cumulative match experience and stronger singles records
• • Opponents include a player with very limited match sample (Ingildsen), increasing uncertainty
• • No doubles-specific results, unclear surface/venue advantage, and recent mixed form