Pedro Martinez Portero vs Holger Rune
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Small but positive value on Holger Rune at 1.408: we estimate a 72% win probability versus the market's ~71%, yielding ~+1.4% EV.
Highlights
- • Rune estimated true win probability 72% vs market implied ~71%
- • Minimum fair decimal to break even is 1.389; market is 1.408
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Clear gap in season win-loss records and recent form indicators favoring Rune
Cons
- - Edge is small (≈1.4% ROI) and easily eroded by variance or late information
- - Uncertainty on surface/venue choice and absence of H2H detail increases match variance
Details
We estimate Holger Rune is the clear favorite based on the records in the provided profiles (Rune 38-21 vs Martinez Portero 23-35) and the recent-form indicators that show Rune with stronger results. The market price for Rune is 1.408 (implied ~71.0%). After adjusting raw season win rates for matchup context (Davis Cup pressure, neutral/unspecified surface, and Rune's heavier recent winning tendency), we estimate Rune's true win probability at 72.0%. That makes the current decimal price 1.408 slightly favorable versus our fair price (1 / 0.72 = 1.389). EV per 1-unit stake = 0.72 * 1.408 - 1 = +0.014 (about +1.4% ROI). The edge is small but positive; the recommendation is to back Rune only because the current market price exceeds our minimum required odds. Key uncertainties are Davis Cup surface/venue choice, lack of head-to-head data, and small sample noise in recent match listings.
Key factors
- • Rune's superior season record (38-21) vs Martinez Portero (23-35)
- • Recent-form indicators favor Rune; Martinez Portero shows multiple recent losses
- • Surface and Davis Cup home/venue not specified, both players have experience on all surfaces