Pedro Martinez vs Holger Rune
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend betting Holger Rune at current odds (1.36) because our model estimates a 76% win probability, giving a ~3.4% positive ROI versus the market-implied 73.5%.
Highlights
- • Market implies 73.5% for Rune; we estimate 76.0%
- • Small positive EV (~3.36% ROI) at the current price
Pros
- + Clear season-level performance advantage for Rune
- + Current odds are sufficiently high relative to our probability estimate to yield positive EV
Cons
- - Edge is modest — small ROI per unit staked
- - Tennis upsets can be frequent; variance can erode short-term returns
Details
We find value on Holger Rune (away). The market price of 1.36 implies a win probability of ~73.5% (1/1.36). Comparing available form and season records, Rune's 38-21 mark (64% season win rate) is materially stronger than Pedro Martinez's 23-35 (39.7%); both have recent hard-court activity but Rune has the deeper, more consistent results. We estimate Rune's true win probability at 76.0%, above the market's implied 73.5%, producing positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.76 * 1.36 - 1 = 0.0336 (3.36% ROI). Given no injury flags in the supplied research and the clear win-rate differential, the current 1.36 price offers a small but real edge.
Key factors
- • Rune's substantially better season win-loss record (38-21 vs 23-35)
- • Market-implied probability (73.5%) is below our estimated true probability (76.0%)
- • No injury information provided and both players recently on hard courts