Highlights

• • Sakamoto fair price ~2.857; market offers 3.25
• • Estimated EV ≈ +13.8% (0.138) on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Current decimal price (3.25) exceeds our min-required 2.857 for positive EV
• + Both players' recent form excerpts are mixed, supporting a narrower true gap than the market implies

Cons

• - Kicker has the stronger career win rate and is the market favorite for a reason
• - Limited and partial recent-form data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate

Details

We find value backing Pedro Sakamoto (home) at 3.25 because the market heavily favors Nicolas Kicker (1.31, implied ~76%). Using the provided career win rates and recent match snippets, Kicker has a higher lifetime win rate (~59%) versus Sakamoto (~55%), but that gap is modest. Neither player shows dominating recent form in the provided extracts and both have clay experience, so a realistic true probability for Sakamoto is higher than the market-implied 30.8% (3.25 -> 30.8%). We estimate Sakamoto's win probability at 35% based on career winning baseline, surface parity, and the mixed recent results for both players; at 35% the fair decimal price is ~2.857 and the available 3.25 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 3.25 - 1 = 0.1375). The alternative (backing Kicker at 1.31) shows negative value versus our probability estimate for Kicker (~65%). Therefore we recommend the underdog Sakamoto only because the published price exceeds our min-required odds for positive EV.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Kicker (≈76%) appears overstated relative to career form and surface parity
• • Career win-rate gap between players is modest (Sakamoto ~54.7% vs Kicker ~59%), not enough to justify 1.31 price
• • Recent results in the provided extracts show mixed form for both, reducing evidence for a heavy market favorite
• • Match likely on clay where both have experience, which narrows a clear edge