Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Bruno Kuzuhara
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overstates Pedro’s chances at 1.407 relative to our 65% estimate, producing negative EV; we recommend no bet at current prices.
Highlights
- • Pedro favored by the market (1.407) but implied probability (~71%) is higher than our model (65%)
- • No positive expected value exists on either side given the provided information
Pros
- + Pedro’s superior overall win-loss record suggests he is the likely favorite
- + Both players’ limited sample sizes mean our probability is reasonably conservative
Cons
- - Current bookmakers already price Pedro highly, removing value
- - Lack of detailed recent-form, H2H, or injury data increases outcome uncertainty
Details
We estimate Pedro Boscardin Dias is the stronger player based on win-loss sample (47-28 vs 26-30) and broader match volume, and we place his true win probability around 65%. The market price (home 1.407) implies ~71.1% which overstates his advantage relative to available form and results; that market price includes a noticeable overround. Using our 65% estimate, the expected value at the current home price is negative (EV = 0.65 * 1.407 - 1 ≈ -0.085), so there is no positive value on Pedro. Bruno Kuzuhara’s implied price (2.81) would only be of interest if we believed his chance exceeded ~35.6%; our read of form and career records does not support a true probability that high. Given current widely-available prices, neither side offers positive expected value, so we recommend taking no bet.
Key factors
- • Pedro has a stronger overall win percentage (47-28) vs Bruno (26-30)
- • Both players have experience on clay and hard courts; no clear surface edge from provided data
- • Market-implied probability for Pedro (~71.1%) exceeds our estimated true probability (65%)
- • No head-to-head or clear recent-form edge from the provided snippets to justify market price