Highlights

• • Away price 2.64 exceeds our required 2.50 threshold
• • Experience and larger sample favor Mario despite Pedro being marked favorite

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market odds
• + Lower variance assessment due to Mario’s larger match sample on clay

Cons

• - Both players show mixed recent form and limited reliable recent results
• - Small-sample uncertainty for Pedro increases outcome volatility

Details

We compare the bookmaker's pricing to our estimated win probabilities. The market prices Pedro Rodenas as a clear favorite at 1.417 (implied ~70.6%), but available data shows Pedro has a very small sample (11 matches, 6-5) with mixed results on clay and limited recent form. Mario Gonzalez Fernandez has a substantially larger sample (45 matches, 23-22) and consistent clay experience, which reduces variance and suggests a higher baseline chance than an untested opponent. Given the sample-size advantage, surface parity (both play clay), and the modest recent results for both, we estimate Mario's true win probability around 40.0%. At the current away price of 2.64 this implies positive expectation (EV = 0.40*2.64 - 1 = +0.056). To be profitable we require at minimum 2.50 decimal on Mario; the market’s 2.64 provides enough edge to recommend a back of the away player. We account for bookmaker margin and the uncertainty around small-sample form by using a conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Pedro has a very small match sample (11 matches) and mixed clay results
• • Mario has far more match experience (45 matches) and proven clay exposure
• • Current market overprices the home favorite relative to the experience gap