Pedro Sakamoto vs Gustavo Heide
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value on Pedro Sakamoto at 4.25 given our estimated true win probability (~20%); required odds for value are ~5.00.
Highlights
- • Market heavily favors Gustavo (1.191) consistent with career records
- • Pedro would need ~5.00+ odds to offer positive expected value
Pros
- + Solely based on supplied data — conservative estimate avoids chasing long odds
- + Clear threshold provided (min_required_decimal_odds = 5.00) if a better price appears
Cons
- - Research sample is limited and contains sparse recent-match detail, increasing uncertainty
- - Quarterfinal stage can produce variance; a single upset is possible despite negative EV
Details
The market strongly favors Gustavo Heide (decimal 1.191, implied ~83.9%) while Pedro Sakamoto is priced at 4.25 (implied ~23.5%). Our read of the limited, provided data shows Gustavo with a better overall record (19-15 vs 16-20) and no reported injuries or surface disadvantage for Sakamoto. Given the available career and recent-match fragments, we judge Pedro's true chance of winning to be materially below the level required to justify a bet at 4.25. Using a conservative true-win estimate for Pedro (20%), the expected return at the current price is negative (EV = 0.20 * 4.25 - 1 = -0.15). To reach positive EV on Pedro we'd need decimal odds of at least 5.000. Therefore we do not recommend taking a side at current prices as no value exists.
Key factors
- • Gustavo Heide has a superior win-loss record in the supplied data (19-15 vs 16-20)
- • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no surface advantage evident from the provided research
- • No injury or withdrawal information provided; market likely reflecting form/quality gap