Highlights

• • Home price (3.25) requires only ~30.8% true probability to be +EV
• • We estimate Sakamoto at ~35% which yields ~13.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Price offers clear mathematical value versus our probability estimate
• + Sakamoto has recent match activity on clay and a long career baseline

Cons

• - Kicker's superior lifetime record and favorite status mean upset risk if our probability is too optimistic
• - Research data on recent form is limited and somewhat noisy (mixed results across levels)

Details

We identify value on the home player Pedro Sakamoto at 3.25. The market prices Nicolas Kicker at 1.318 (implied ~75.8%), which looks rich given the available player data. Kicker does have a stronger overall career win rate, but recent results in the research show Kicker playing Challenger qualifying with mixed outcomes (suggesting form volatility and possible fatigue), while Sakamoto has recent activity at M15 events with competitive results on clay and a long career baseline. Comparing career-level win rates (Sakamoto ~54-55% lifetime, Kicker ~59-60%) does not justify a ~76% implied chance for Kicker in an ITF quarterfinal on clay where margins are narrower. We estimate Sakamoto's true win probability at ~35%; at this probability the 3.25 price gives positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 3.25 - 1 = +0.1375). The home line needs only ~30.8% true probability to beat the market price, so our model yields a clear value edge. We use the provided current odds (home 3.25) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~75.8% for Kicker, likely overstating advantage in an ITF QF on clay
• • Sakamoto has solid career win rate and recent competitive matches at M15 level on clay
• • Kicker's recent activity in Challenger qualifying shows mixed results and potential fatigue/volatility