Pedro Sakamoto vs Salvador Price

Highlights

• • Price implied chance ≈12.5% vs our estimate 35%
• • Required decimal odds to break even ≈2.857; current 8.01 is well above that

Pros

• + Very large positive EV at current odds
• + Backed by close parity in observable form and surface history

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited research data increase uncertainty
• - Possible unobserved factors (ranking, late injuries, home-court advantages) could justify the market line

Details

We find clear value on Salvador Price given the market prices. The bookmaker implies Salvador Price has only a ~12.5% chance to win at 8.01 (1/8.01 = 0.1248), while Pedro Sakamoto's 1.114 price implies an ~89.9% chance. The public prices are extreme relative to the available performance data: both players have very similar career win rates this season (Pedro Sakamoto ~44.4% wins, Salvador Price ~42.9% wins), both play the same surfaces (clay and hard) and recent form entries are mixed for each with no injury flags in the provided material. With near-identical records and no clear evidence of a decisive advantage for Sakamoto, we estimate Salvador Price's true chance of winning at roughly 35%. Using that estimate, the decimal odds needed to break even are ~2.857; the available price of 8.01 produces a large positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 8.01 - 1 = 1.8035). We therefore recommend backing the away player only because the current market price offers significant value versus our conservative true-probability estimate. We remain cautious because the sample sizes are small and the line could reflect unobserved factors (ranking difference, last-minute withdrawals, or local knowledge) not present in the supplied research.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for Price (≈12.5%) is far below our estimated true chance
• • Both players have almost identical recent win rates and surface experience
• • No injury information or clear form advantage for Sakamoto in the provided data