Pedro Sakamoto vs Victor Braga

Highlights

• • Estimated Sakamoto win probability ~90%
• • Required price to show value for Sakamoto: >=1.111

Pros

• + Clear qualitative edge for Sakamoto in experience and form
• + Braga's poor record suggests low upset probability

Cons

• - Market has already priced Sakamoto so short that backing him is negative EV
• - Limited data/sample sizes on Braga create uncertainty in precise probability estimates

Details

We estimate Pedro Sakamoto is the clear favorite given his larger match sample, better win count and more consistent results versus Victor Braga, who has a 2-7 record and limited match experience. However, the market price for Sakamoto (1.033 decimal, implied win probability ~96.8%) is excessively short. Our model-based fair win probability for Sakamoto is approximately 90.0%, which still implies a required decimal price of about 1.111 to break even. At the quoted 1.033, the expected value is negative (EV = 0.90 * 1.033 - 1 = -0.0703), so there is no value to back the home favorite. We therefore decline to recommend a side. If the market were to lengthen Sakamoto to >=1.111 (or Braga to >=11.11), value would appear for backing Sakamoto or laying Braga respectively.

Key factors

• • Sakamoto has considerably more match experience and a stronger recent record than Braga
• • Braga's 2-7 record and small sample size increase upset uncertainty but still imply a low win ceiling
• • Market price for Sakamoto (1.033) implies an unrealistically high win chance (~96.8%), removing value