Highlights

• • Home implied probability (33.3%) slightly exceeds our conservative estimate (32%)
• • Favourite would need an unrealistically high true win probability (~74.6%) to be +EV at 1.34

Pros

• + Current home price (3.00) could become valuable if verifiable positive info on Pohjola emerges
• + Clear numerical threshold (min required odds 3.125) to look for price improvement

Cons

• - Insufficient data increases model uncertainty and the risk of mispricing
• - Current quoted prices give negative EV under conservative assumptions

Details

The market strongly favours Peter Fajta at 1.34 (implied away win probability ~74.6%). The home price 3.00 implies a 33.3% chance. With no external data available (surface, form, injuries, H2H), we take a conservative baseline estimate for Peetu Pohjola's true win probability at 32.0%. At that estimate the fair price would be 3.125 (1 / 0.32). Placing a bet at the quoted 3.00 yields an expected value of 0.32 * 3.00 - 1 = -0.04 (negative EV). To justify a back of Pohjola at the current market you would need to believe his true win probability is >33.33%; absent verifiable information we are not confident enough to assert that. The favourite (Fajta) would only be a value bet if his true win probability exceeded ~74.6%, which is implausible without confirmatory info. Therefore we do not recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available — must be conservative
• • Bookmaker prices show a heavy market skew to the away player (1.34)
• • Underdog would need >33.33% true win probability to be +EV at 3.00