Petar Teodorovic vs Faiz Nasyam
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value present at current prices; the heavy favorite is priced too short for our conservative 90% win estimate and the underdog would need a materially higher true chance to be profitable.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (market) ~93.5% vs our conservative 90% estimate
- • Away would need >11.8% true win probability to be +EV at 8.5
Pros
- + Market consensus strongly favors the home player (likely the safer outcome)
- + Low odds limit variance for small losses if one insists on backing the favorite
Cons
- - No positive expected value at available prices
- - High uncertainty due to lack of surface, form, or injury information
Details
We compared the current market prices (Home 1.07 / Away 8.5) against a conservative, information-sparse true-probability estimate. Given the lack of research data, we assume the home favorite's true win probability is around 90% (0.90). At the available home decimal of 1.07 this yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.90 * 1.07 - 1 = -0.037). The away price (8.5) implies an implied probability of ~11.76%; to be profitable on the away player we would need to believe his true chance exceeds ~11.8% — we do not have evidence to support that. Because neither side offers positive EV under conservative assumptions, we decline to recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • No available research or recent form/injury data — high information uncertainty
- • Market strongly favors the home player (implied ~93.5%)
- • Our conservative estimate (90%) still produces negative EV at 1.07