Petar Teodorovic vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar

Highlights

• • Home implied breakeven >68.5%; our estimated home win chance 66%
• • Away would need >39.2% true chance to be valuable; Rethin’s profile suggests a lower chance

Pros

• + Market correctly favors the presumably stronger/home player based on available data
• + Away player’s limited record supports skepticism about upset value

Cons

• - Lack of detailed info on Petar Teodorovic increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Small sample (Rethin) and recent losses leave room for unpredictable variance

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Home 1.46 / Away 2.55) to our assessment of true win chances. The market-implied probability for the home player at 1.46 is ~68.5% (raw) and ~63.6% when normalized for the bookmaker overround; that implies the market views the home player as a clear favorite. The away player (Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar) has a short professional history (3-5 record over 8 matches through mid-2025) with recent losses on clay and no additional positive form indicators in the provided research. Given the limited sample sizes and lack of further detail on Petar Teodorovic, we conservatively estimate the home player’s true win probability at 66.0%—below the breakeven threshold for the quoted home price. At our 66% estimate, the home price 1.46 yields a negative expected value (EV = -0.036), so there is no value at current prices. The away price requires a true win probability >39.2% to be positive; our estimation for the away player is materially below that level, so it likewise offers no value.

Key factors

• • Market prices make the home player a clear favorite (1.46); breakeven probability ~68.5%
• • Away player (Rethin) has very limited pro data (3-5), recent losses, and no clear positives in research
• • Small sample sizes and missing info on Petar increase estimation uncertainty and risk of variance