Petar Teodorovic vs Rodrigo Fernandes
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on the home player at 2.35 based on Rodrigo's thin, mixed record and an implied price that appears inflated; the edge is modest and uncertainty is high.
Highlights
- • Home at 2.35 vs away at 1.53 implies roughly 42.6% threshold for value; we estimate 44%
- • EV is positive but small (≈3.4% ROI) and depends on limited information
Pros
- + Bookmaker-implied probability for Rodrigo looks high given his 5-6 career record
- + Current home price (2.35) exceeds our min-required odds (2.273) for the estimated probability
Cons
- - Very limited information on Petar Teodorovic increases model uncertainty
- - Edge is small (3.4%); variance and match-level factors could easily negate it
Details
We estimate value on the home player (Petar Teodorovic) because the market price (Rodrigo Fernandes at 1.53, implied ~65.4%) appears rich relative to the limited and mixed form shown in the available profile. Rodrigo's career record in the research is 5-6 across 11 matches with recent losses on hard courts, so we view his true win probability as substantially lower than the bookmaker-implied probability. We conservatively estimate Petar's true win probability at 44% (0.44). At the current home decimal price of 2.35 this yields positive expected value: EV = 0.44 * 2.35 - 1 = 0.034 (3.4% ROI). The edge is modest and subject to high uncertainty because we have no direct data on Petar, but the current prices offer slight value for backing the underdog at home versus an away player with a limited winning record.
Key factors
- • Rodrigo Fernandes has a limited sample (11 matches) and a 5-6 record, reducing confidence in favorite status
- • Bookmakers price Rodrigo at 1.53 (~65.4% implied) which seems high given his mixed recent results on hard courts
- • We have no direct data on Petar Teodorovic, increasing uncertainty; home advantage and underdog value justify a conservative edge