Peter Buldorini vs Yi Zhou

Highlights

• • Book prices Yi Zhou at ~97% implied — we find that implausible given mixed recent form and records.
• • At our 18% true probability, the home moneyline 10.0 yields a large positive expected value.

Pros

• + Very favorable decimal price (10.0) for an underdog with plausible upset potential
• + No reported injuries or disqualifying factors for the underdog in the provided research

Cons

• - High variance bet: underdogs win less often and outcomes are binary — large chance to lose stake
• - Limited data depth (no H2H, no specific surface for this match) increases model uncertainty

Details

The market is pricing Yi Zhou at 1.03 (implied ~97.1%) which implies an almost certain win. Our assessment based on the provided player profiles (career records, recent form and surfaces) does not support such an extreme probability. Yi has a larger sample size (48 matches, 23-25) and experience on hard courts, but his win rate is roughly 48% overall and his recent results show mixed outcomes; Peter Buldorini has a smaller sample (32 matches, 13-19) but has played multiple surfaces including hard and clay and has shown sporadic wins. There are no injury reports or H2H data provided to justify a near-97% market probability for Yi. Conservatively we estimate Peter's upset probability at 18%, which makes the offered 10.0 decimal price significantly mispriced. At our estimated true probability the home moneyline yields positive expected value (EV = 0.18 * 10.0 - 1 = 0.80), so the home underdog is a value play relative to the current market price of 10.0.

Key factors

• • Market implies Yi Zhou win probability (~97%) far above what career records and recent form justify
• • Yi Zhou has more matches and a marginally better record but not dominance that would justify near-certain pricing
• • Peter Buldorini has shown the ability to win on multiple surfaces and represents an upset candidate
• • No injury or H2H information provided to validate such an extreme market skew