Peter Hatton vs James Lorenzetti
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With only the quoted moneylines and no match-specific data, our conservative normalized estimate gives the home player ≈62.8% win probability; at the current home price (1.48) this is a negative EV, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied (normalized) home probability ≈62.8%
- • EV at current home odds (1.48) is ≈ -7.0% on a 1-unit stake
Pros
- + Conservative, market-consistent probability estimate avoids speculative edges
- + Clear threshold: home would require min decimal odds ≈1.591 to be fair
Cons
- - No match-specific information to exploit potential edges
- - Bookmaker margin and lack of data increase uncertainty
Details
We normalize the market-implied probabilities from the two quoted moneylines to remove bookmaker overround and then apply a conservative stance because no match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) is available. The raw implied probabilities are Home 1/1.48 = 67.57% and Away 1/2.50 = 40.00% (sum 107.57%). Normalizing removes the vig and yields Home ≈ 62.82% and Away ≈ 37.18% as our best estimate of true win chances given only the market. At the current home price (1.48) that estimated probability produces a negative expected value (EV = p * odds - 1 ≈ -0.070), so there is no positive value bet on either side at the quoted prices. Because we lack additional information to materially move our probability away from the normalized market-implied values, we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • No external match-specific information available (surface, form, injuries, H2H)
- • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove bookmaker overround
- • Conservative approach: avoid deviating from market without evidence