Peter Makk vs Millen Hurrion

Highlights

• • Hurrion's larger sample and winrate underpin a 56% true-win estimate
• • Current away price 2.00 exceeds our break-even of 1.786, giving positive EV

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at available odds (12% ROI)
• + Hurrion's broader match experience reduces variance versus Makk

Cons

• - Both players have somewhat limited recent/high-quality match data, increasing uncertainty
• - No head-to-head or detailed injury info available in the research to further lower risk

Details

We estimate Millen Hurrion is the stronger player based on a larger sample size (39 matches, 24-15) and more consistent results across clay and hard compared with Peter Makk's smaller 15-match sample (8-7). The market currently prices Peter Makk as the favorite at 1.741 (implied ~57.5%), but our estimated true probability for Hurrion is 56.0%, which implies fair decimal value of 1.786. At the available away price of 2.00 the bet has positive expected value. Calculation: estimated_true_probability = 0.56 => min_required_decimal_odds = 1 / 0.56 = 1.786. EV at current odds = 0.56 * 2.00 - 1 = +0.12 (12% ROI). We judge the book is overpricing the home player relative to Hurrion's form and larger match experience on relevant surfaces. Given limited head-to-head data and some recent inactivity for both players, there is uncertainty, so position size should reflect medium risk, but the raw value is clear at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Millen Hurrion has a larger and stronger overall record this season (24-15 vs 8-7)
• • Both players have experience on hard courts, but Hurrion's bigger sample reduces variance
• • Bookmaker favoring home (1.741) appears to overstate Peter Makk's edge relative to available form
• • Limited recent-match noise for both players creates uncertainty, but does not remove value at 2.00