Peter Hatton vs Maximilian Borisov

Highlights

• • Market implies favorite probability ~54.6%; our conservative estimate is 52%
• • Home would require odds ≥1.923 to be +EV at our probability estimate

Pros

• + Conservative, risk-aware stance avoids betting into bookmaker margin
• + Clear breakeven threshold provided if better prices become available

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific information increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - If our conservative estimate underestimates one player's advantage, a missed value bet is possible

Details

We have no external match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H), so we adopt a conservative neutral estimate. The market prices (home 1.83, away 1.90) imply probabilities of ~54.6% and ~52.6% respectively after accounting for the bookmaker margin; the market contains a noticeable vig. Absent additional information, we estimate Peter Hatton (home) at a 52.0% true win probability and Maximilian Borisov (away) at 48.0% — a cautious slight edge to the listed favorite but not large enough to overcome the book margin. At our estimate, the home-side EV at the available 1.83 is negative (EV = 0.52*1.83 - 1 ≈ -0.048), so there is no value to back either side at current prices. To justify a bet on the home player given our probability, decimal odds would need to be at least 1.923.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available (form, surface, injuries, H2H) — use conservative estimates
• • Market-implied prices include a meaningful bookmaker margin, removing apparent edge
• • Our conservative true probability (52% for home) is below the market-neutral break-even threshold (≈54.6%)