Peter Hatton vs Rodrigo Fernandes

Highlights

• • Market implies Rodrigo ~84% but provided data shows only a 5-6 career record
• • Home needs only ~23% to break even at 4.35; we estimate ~30%

Pros

• + Significant price disparity between market implied probability and our conservative estimate
• + Small sample for favorite increases variance and potential for mispricing

Cons

• - Very limited data on Peter Hatton in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Rodrigo may have unreported factors (fitness, matchup advantage) not present in the research that justify the short price

Details

We see the market strongly favors Rodrigo Fernandes at 1.19 (implied ~84%) despite the limited evidence in the provided research. Rodrigo's documented career record is 5-6 (≈45% win rate) with mixed recent results on hard courts; there is no information on Peter Hatton in the provided research. Given Fernandes' short sample and lack of dominance in the available data, we judge the bookmaker price for him to be overstated. The underdog (Peter Hatton) at 4.35 implies a win probability of ~23% — we estimate Hatton's true chance is materially higher (we use 30%) because Rodrigo's record does not support an 84% expectation and small-sample variance is high. At our estimate this produces positive expected value: EV = 0.30 * 4.35 - 1 = +0.305 (30.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We used the current decimal odds 4.35 for the home side to calculate EV.

Key factors

• • Rodrigo Fernandes has a short professional sample (11 matches) and a 5-6 record — not dominant
• • Current market price (Rodrigo 1.19) implies an ~84% win chance which is not supported by the provided performance data
• • Underdog Peter Hatton lacks published data in the research but the implied home probability (~23%) is low enough that modest disagreement (we use 30%) yields value