Highlights

• • Makk priced at 1.142 implies an 87.5% win probability — we estimate ~62%
• • At our estimate the available price yields roughly -29% ROI, so it's a negative-EV play

Pros

• + Makk has a slightly better raw season record (8-7 vs 5-7)
• + Both players have experience on hard and clay, so no obvious surface mismatch against Makk

Cons

• - Sample sizes are small and recent results are mixed — uncertainty is high
• - Market price is drastically shorter than what the available data supports, offering no value

Details

We see Peter Makk priced extremely short at 1.142 (implied win probability ~87.5%). Our read of the supplied performance data does not support such a lopsided probability. Makk is 8-7 across 15 matches this season and has mixed recent results; Alberti is 5-7 across 12 matches with comparable surface exposure. There is no head-to-head or injury information to justify an >87% chance for Makk. Based on form and sample sizes, we estimate Makk's true win probability substantially lower than market-implied. At our estimated probability the required fair decimal price is ~1.61; the available 1.142 offers negative expected value, so we decline to back the favorite.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.142) implies >87% chance — unsupported by match records
• • Peter Makk has a modest 8-7 season record; Filippo Alberti has a comparable 5-7 record — no clear dominance
• • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage information in the provided research to justify the short price