Peter Makk vs Liam Broady

Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 4.51 = 22.2%; our estimate = 22% (no edge)
• • Away implied probability at 1.172 = 85.3%; our estimate = 78% (no edge)

Pros

• + Clear market skew makes it easy to test for value
• + Research shows Broady as a consistent favorite with larger sample size

Cons

• - Current prices leave no positive expected value for either side
• - Limited actionable edge due to sparse specific surface/venue advantages or injury intel

Details

We compare the bookmaker prices (Home 4.51, Away 1.172) to our independently estimated win chances. The market implies ~22.2% for Peter Makk and ~85.3% for Liam Broady. Based on the research, Liam Broady has a much larger sample (33-20) and recent wins at this level, while Peter Makk has a smaller sample (8-7) and mixed recent results. We estimate Broady's true win probability around 78% and Makk around 22%; at those probabilities neither side produces positive expected value at the listed prices. Betting the underdog Makk at 4.51 yields an EV ≈ -0.008 (0.22 * 4.51 - 1), so it is marginally negative. Betting Broady at 1.172 also lacks value (our estimated 78% vs. implied 85.3%). Therefore we do not recommend taking either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker prices strongly favor Broady (implied ~85.3%), more than our estimate (~78%)
• • Broady has substantially larger match sample and recent wins; Makk has limited pro data and mixed results
• • No injury or surface edge information in the research to justify the market skew toward Broady