Highlights

• • Cerundolo priced at 1.275 implies ~78% chance
• • Our model estimates Cerundolo closer to 68% — not enough to produce positive EV at current odds

Pros

• + We avoid taking a negative-EV favorite despite perceived safety
• + Clear threshold provided for required minimum odds (1.471) to create value on Cerundolo

Cons

• - Uncertainty on grass-form specifics for both players increases model variance
• - If unseen factors (injury, late withdrawal, exceptional grass form) exist, our estimate could be off

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Cerundolo 1.275 implied ~78.4%) to our estimated true win probability for Juan Manuel Cerundolo of 68%. While Cerundolo is the clear favorite on grass with a stronger overall record and more match experience, the market price implies a substantially higher probability than our assessment. Using our probability, the bet on Cerundolo at the current price yields negative expected value (EV = 0.68 * 1.275 - 1 = -0.133). Petr Bar Biryukov has had solid results overall but lacks convincing grass-specific data to justify taking the +3.77 line as value. Because no side shows positive EV at the current widely available prices, we do not recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • Market implies Cerundolo ~78.4% win chance (1/1.275) which we view as overstated
• • Cerundolo has stronger overall record and grass experience, but not enough to justify 78% probability
• • Petr Bar Biryukov has a good recent win rate but limited grass-specific evidence for an upset