Highlights

• • Away implied probability 37.9%, our estimate 38.0%
• • Resulting EV is +0.0032 (0.32% ROI) — very small edge

Pros

• + Current price (2.64) just clears our minimum required odds (2.632) for positive EV
• + Underdog value arises from limited grass data reducing the favorite’s perceived advantage

Cons

• - Edge is extremely small and within data/model noise
• - High uncertainty because both players have limited/no documented grass experience and recent form shows losses

Details

We find a very small value on Tianhui Zhang at the available price. The bookmaker-implied probability for Zhang at 2.64 is ~37.9%. After weighing form and background data from the provided profiles, we estimate Zhang's true win probability at ~38.0% (0.380). Key drivers: both players have most of their recent match history on hard courts with little or no documented grass experience, which raises uncertainty and reduces the favorite's edge; Petr Bar Biryukov has the stronger overall record (46-23 vs 28-20), but his advantage is likely reduced on an unfamiliar grass surface and both players arrive having lost their recent listed matches, suggesting increased variance. Given our 38.0% estimate vs the market-implied 37.9%, the current away price of 2.64 offers a marginal positive EV (roughly +0.32% ROI). This is a tiny edge and carries meaningful model and surface uncertainty, so we flag the pick as high risk despite nominal positive EV.

Key factors

• • Both players have most documented results on hard courts with little/no grass exposure
• • Petr Bar Biryukov has a better career win-rate, but advantage likely reduced on grass and with recent loss
• • Market price for Zhang (2.64) implies ~37.9%; our conservative estimate is ~38.0%, producing a very small positive edge