Petra Sedlackova vs Nela Linhartova

Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~79% vs our estimated away probability 65%
• • At 3.55 the away yields +1.308 EV per unit with our estimate

Pros

• + Large positive EV at current market price if our probability estimate holds
• + Low breakeven probability for the away (≈28.2%), so only modest disagreement with the market is needed

Cons

• - Research contains little-to-no direct data on the away player, increasing model risk
• - Small sample and limited recent-match details make the estimated probability uncertain

Details

The market prices Petra Sedlackova as a heavy favorite (1.26 -> implied 79%), but her documented form and career win rate (10-21, ~32%) contradict a near-80% true win probability. Recent listed results show consecutive losses. We have no independent performance data for Nela Linhartova in the research set, which increases uncertainty, but given Petra's poor record and recent form the market appears to overvalue the home player. If we estimate Nela's true win probability at 65% (Petra ~35%), the away price of 3.55 offers substantial value: EV = 0.65*3.55 - 1 = +1.308 per unit staked. Even with a more conservative estimate, the breakeven probability for the away at 3.55 is only ~28.2%, so modest disagreement with the market produces positive EV. We therefore recommend backing the away player at current widely-available prices while acknowledging elevated uncertainty due to missing opponent-specific data.

Key factors

• • Petra Sedlackova's career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) implies a much lower true win probability than 79%
• • Recent documented matches show consecutive losses, indicating negative form
• • Market odds (home 1.26) appear inflated relative to available form data, creating potential value on the away
• • Lack of opponent-specific data increases uncertainty and elevates risk