Highlights

• • Market implies Sekulic ~60% but research supports Milavsky being closer to a 52% chance
• • Break-even odds for our estimate are ~1.923; available price 2.22 offers value

Pros

• + Clearer surface experience advantage for Milavsky
• + Stronger career win rate and larger match sample in Research

Cons

• - Limited recent form detail in the supplied Research to fully capture short-term momentum
• - Small-sample variance inherent in Challenger-level matchups

Details

We view Daniel Milavsky as the value play. The market prices Philip Sekulic as a ~60% favorite (1.662) despite Sekulic having limited grass experience in the provided profile and a smaller sample of matches compared with Milavsky. Milavsky has a stronger overall win-loss record (38-14 vs 24-16) and listed experience on grass, which reduces the matchup uncertainty. At our estimated true win probability for Milavsky of 52%, the current decimal price of 2.22 generates positive expected value (EV = 0.52 * 2.22 - 1 = +0.154). The required fair decimal price to break even on our estimate is ~1.923, well below the available 2.22. Given the clear edge in career-level results and surface experience in the Research, we recommend backing the away player at current prices.

Key factors

• • Milavsky stronger overall win-loss record (38-14 vs 24-16)
• • Milavsky has listed grass experience; Sekulic shows mostly hard-court matches
• • Current market prices favor Sekulic, creating a potential mispricing vs our probability