Philip Sekulic vs Murphy Cassone
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Cassone is slightly over-backed by the market and Sekulic's price is just short of the level needed to offer positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies 71.4% for Cassone (1.40) but our estimate is ~65%
- • Sekulic at 2.80 would require ~35.7% true chance; we estimate ~35% — just below value threshold
Pros
- + Cassone: more matches and higher-level recent exposure supports favoritism
- + Sekulic: respectable record on hard courts and could be competitive if recent form is under-discounted
Cons
- - Current favorite price (1.40) does not offer positive EV against our probability
- - Limited publicly available direct H2H or injury detail increases uncertainty
Details
We compared the market prices to our estimated win probability. Murphy Cassone is the market favorite at 1.40 (implied 71.4%) and has a larger sample (48-28) and more hard-court matches versus Philip Sekulic (24-16). Based on form and surface profile, we estimate Cassone's true win probability at ~65%, which implies fair odds of ~1.54. At the available price of 1.40 the bet is negative EV (-0.09 per unit). The underdog Sekulic at 2.80 (implied 35.7%) would need a true win chance above ~35.7% to be mispriced; we estimate Sekulic around 35%, so his price is marginally short of required value (min needed ~2.857). Given both sides appear to be incorrectly priced for positive expectation, we do not recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Cassone has a larger match sample and slightly better overall win rate, especially on hard courts
- • Both players recently contested the Winston Salem event, but Cassone showed higher-level exposure (US Open appearance)
- • Market heavily favors Cassone (1.40); our model estimates his true probability below the market-implied price, removing value