Highlights

• • Home needs probability > 42.55% to be value at 2.35; we estimate 40%
• • Away needs probability > 64.94% to be value at 1.54; we estimate 60%

Pros

• + Market is clear about the favorite; prices are consistent with a meaningful edge for the away player
• + Conservative approach avoids overbetting with insufficient information

Cons

• - Lack of surface, form, injury, and H2H data increases uncertainty
• - If our conservative probabilities are too low (undisclosed factors favoring the underdog), value could exist but is unconfirmable

Details

We compared the market prices to a conservative estimated win probability given the lack of supporting data. The market implies the away player Lera Alexin has a ~64.9% chance (1/1.54) and the home Pia Marija Rebec a ~42.6% chance (1/2.35). To be positive EV at the home price (2.35) Pia would need a true win probability > 0.4255; to be positive EV on the away price (1.54) Lera would need a true win probability > 0.6494. Given no surface, form, injury, or head-to-head data, we use conservative baseline estimates (P(home)=0.40, P(away)=0.60). Those estimates produce negative expected value at both quoted prices (home EV = 0.40*2.35 - 1 = -0.06; away EV = 0.60*1.54 - 1 = -0.076). Therefore neither side shows value at current market odds and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent form, surface, injury, or H2H data available — we apply conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market-implied probabilities: Away ~64.9%, Home ~42.6%
• • Our conservative estimates (Home 40%, Away 60%) are below market thresholds required for positive EV