Highlights

• • Raquillet: more matches but no clear superiority in win rate
• • Current prices (1.80 for away) imply a higher probability than our estimate, producing negative EV

Pros

• + We use conservative probability given limited grass data
• + Clear numeric threshold provided (min required odds 1.923) for future line checks

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to absence of grass-court data
• - Small-sample and noisy stats limit confidence — could be mispriced if market has other intel

Details

Both players have limited or mixed form on non-grass surfaces and neither shows demonstrable grass-court edge in the provided profiles. Leo Raquillet has far greater match volume (40 matches) versus Pierre Antoine Faut (8 matches), but their raw win rates are similar and Raquillet's record is slightly below 50%, so we assign only a modest edge to Raquillet. The bookmaker prices Raquillet at 1.80 (implied 55.6%), which is richer than our estimated true probability (~52% → required odds 1.923). At the quoted 1.80 there is negative expected value (-0.064 per unit). Home at 1.962 (implied 50.97%) would require a true win probability >50.97% to be +EV; our assessment does not support that. Given high uncertainty on grass form and noisy small-sample stats, we decline to recommend a side because neither price offers positive EV.

Key factors

• • Both players lack documented grass-court experience in the provided profiles
• • Raquillet has much larger match sample (40) versus Faut (8), but similar sub-50% win rates
• • Bookmaker favors Raquillet at 1.80 (implied 55.6%), which exceeds our estimated win probability