Pierre Delage vs Axel Garcian
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home moneyline (Pierre Delage) because his estimated win probability (~56%) exceeds the market-implied probability (~53.3%), producing a small positive EV.
Highlights
- • Delage's career win rate materially higher than Garcian's in the provided data
- • Current price 1.877 offers ~5.1% ROI versus our probability model
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available home odds
- + Delage's stronger win-loss record suggests a modest quality edge
Cons
- - Sample sizes are limited and recent-form data is sparse/fragmented
- - Odds are tight; small shifts in assumptions or market movement quickly remove the edge
Details
We estimate Pierre Delage is the slight favorite despite near-even market pricing. Delage has a stronger career win rate (20-14, ~59%) compared with Axel Garcian (24-23, ~51%) and both have activity on clay and hard courts, so there is no clear surface advantage for Garcian. The market-implied probability for Delage at 1.877 is ~53.3%; we estimate his true win probability at ~56.0% based on superior win-loss rate, similar surface experience, and absence of negative injury signals in the provided research. That difference produces positive expected value at the available home moneyline (EV ≈ +0.051 per unit).
Key factors
- • Delage's higher career winning percentage (20-14 ≈ 59%) versus Garcian (24-23 ≈ 51%)
- • Both players have recent match activity on clay and hard, reducing a surface edge for the underdog
- • Market pricing is tight (1.877 vs 1.82) creating an overlay for Delage relative to our probability estimate