Highlights

• • Market implies 73.3% for Echeverria; our estimate is 72.0%
• • Required odds for value on Echeverria are ≥ 1.389; current quote 1.364 is too short

Pros

• + Clear objective edge in career results for Echeverria
• + Both players accustomed to clay, reducing surface uncertainty

Cons

• - Recent form for both is mixed; small sample recent results introduce variance
• - Market price is marginally shorter than our fair price, eliminating value

Details

We compared the market price (Away John Echeverria @ 1.364, implied probability 73.3%) to our modelled win probability based on the provided profiles. John Echeverria has a stronger career record (108-101, ~51.6% career win rate) versus Pierre Delage (69-104, ~40.0% career win rate) and both have clay experience. Taking into account Echeverria's clear career edge but recent mixed results, we estimate Echeverria's true win probability at 72.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.389 (1 / 0.72). The available price 1.364 is shorter than the fair price and yields a negative expected value: EV = 0.72 * 1.364 - 1 = -0.0179 (-1.79% ROI). Therefore there is no value on Echeverria at the current market price; the home underdog (Delage @ 2.97) would need an implied probability below our projection for Delage to be a value play, which is not supported by the career records and recent results provided. We recommend no bet because expected value is negative at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate advantage for John Echeverria (108-101 vs 69-104)
• • Both players have clay experience; form is mixed but Echeverria's overall profile is stronger
• • Market-implied probability (73.3%) is slightly higher than our estimated probability (72%), producing negative EV