Highlights

• • Pierre's career win rate is comparable or better than John's despite being the underdog in the market
• • Recent hard-court losses for John suggest form/transition risk on clay

Pros

• + Price (2.85) implies a low probability versus our higher estimated true chance
• + Surface alignment and recent clay activity favor Pierre relative to John's recent hard-court results

Cons

• - Data set is small and both players have limited high-level history — estimation uncertainty is significant
• - No head-to-head or explicit injury information is available; market may correctly account for unseen factors

Details

We see the market strongly favoring John Echeverria at 1.38 (implied ~72.5%), but the player profiles show similar career win rates (Pierre 20-14, John 19-18) and both primarily play clay/hard. Recent inputs show Pierre with recent clay activity and a mixed but solid record, while John’s recent listed matches are hard-court losses, suggesting form/transition risk to clay. Given the limited data but comparable career records and a likely clay setting (Bagneres-De-Bigorre), we estimate Pierre’s true win probability materially above the market-implied 35.1% for 2.85. Using a conservative true probability of 40%, the 2.85 price yields positive expected value (EV = 0.14 per unit). Because expected_value > 0 at the current price, we recommend the home (Pierre Delage) at available odds of 2.85.

Key factors

• • Market implies heavy favorite for John (1.38) despite similar career win rates
• • Pierre has recent clay match activity while John's recent listed matches are on hard with losses
• • Limited sample sizes and recent-form nuance create pricing inefficiencies the market may be overstating