Piet Luis Pinter vs Ognjen Milic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value play on home underdog Piet Luis Pinter at 7.5 because our estimated upset probability (~15%) exceeds the market-implied 13.33%, yielding ~12.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 13.33% vs our estimated 15% -> value present
- • Backing the heavy favorite at 1.08 is not profitable unless true win chance >92.6%
Pros
- + Significant positive EV at current price (7.5) if our probability estimate is accurate
- + Potentially large payout relative to stake due to longshot pricing
Cons
- - High variance and small sample sizes at this tournament level increase uncertainty
- - Milic's superior record makes the outcome still more likely to favor the favorite despite market mispricing
Details
The market heavily favors Ognjen Milic at 1.08 (implied win probability ~92.6%), which requires an overwhelmingly large true probability to be +EV at that price. Comparing career profiles on clay, Milic (22-14) has a clear edge over Piet Luis Pinter (7-12), but the datasets are small and volatility at this level is high. We estimate Milic's true win probability below the market-implied 92.6%, and assign Pinter a realistic upset probability around 15% based on his clay match experience and the inherent variance in lower-tier events. At decimal 7.5 for Pinter this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.15*7.5 - 1 = +0.125). Betting Milic at 1.08 offers negative EV unless we believe his true win chance exceeds ~92.6%, which the available form and records do not justify.
Key factors
- • Market implies Ognjen Milic has ~92.6% chance (1.08), which is implausibly high given available form data
- • Milic has superior career win-loss on clay (22-14 vs 7-12) but small-sample variance at this level reduces confidence in >92% probability
- • Pinter can plausibly be assigned ~15% upset chance on clay; at 7.5 this produces positive expected value