Highlights

• • Market overprices Raynel relative to supplied career form
• • Home at 2.59 requires only ~38.6% true win probability to be fair; we estimate 40%

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +3.6%)
• + Raynel's career and recent form do not justify heavy favoritism based on provided data

Cons

• - No data provided for Pieter de Lange increases model uncertainty
• - Edge is small — vulnerable to missing information or last-minute changes

Details

The market strongly favors Amaury Raynel at 1.463 (implied win probability ~68.3%) while Pieter de Lange is priced at 2.59 (implied ~38.6%). The only supplied player data is Raynel's career and recent form: a 93-97 career record (roughly 48.9% career win rate) and mixed recent results on clay, which does not support a >68% true win probability in a single match. We lack any objective profile or form data for Pieter de Lange in the provided research, increasing uncertainty, but this absence also means the market may be overweighting Raynel on name or recent small-sample results. Conservatively, we estimate Pieter's true win probability at 40.0%, which is above the market-implied 38.6% threshold required to justify a play at 2.59. Using the quoted price (2.59) this yields a small positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 2.59 - 1 = 0.036 or +3.6% ROI). The edge is thin and driven mainly by Raynel's unimpressive overall record and mixed recent form versus the inflated market pricing; because of limited information on the home player and tournament context, the recommendation is a small-value bet rather than a strong selection.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: Away 68.3% vs Home 38.6%
• • Amaury Raynel career record 93-97 suggests sub-50% baseline level
• • Mixed recent results on clay reduce confidence in a heavy favorite status
• • No supplied profile for Pieter de Lange increases uncertainty but allows for value vs market