Highlights

• • Home implied probability (9.13%) appears far too low relative to available data
• • At 10.95 the home side yields large positive EV if true win chance >= ~9.13%

Pros

• + Very large discrepancy between market price and our estimated probability
• + Both players show similar records and surfaces, reducing plausibility of such heavy market favoritism

Cons

• - Limited dataset in research — there may be unreported factors (injury, travel, ranking differences) justifying the line
• - Longshot outcomes are high-variance; single-match unpredictability is significant

Details

We identify clear value on the home moneyline. The market prices Miriana Tona at 1.053 (implied win probability ~94.85%) and Pietra Rivoli at 10.95 (implied ~9.13%). The supplied profiles show near-identical career records (10-21), similar recent form and surfaces played, and no injury or H2H information that would justify a >85-point market gap. Based on parity in the research, we assign a much higher true chance for Pietra Rivoli than the market does (we estimate ~20%). At current decimal odds 10.95 that produces a strongly positive EV (EV = 0.20 * 10.95 - 1 = 1.19). In short: the market appears to have mispriced this matchup massively; if our conservative 20% true probability is reasonable, the home longshot is a value bet.

Key factors

• • Market implied probabilities are extreme (Away ~94.85%, Home ~9.13%)
• • Research shows nearly identical records, recent form and surfaces for both players, not supporting such a gap
• • No injury, H2H or surface advantage reported to justify heavy market favoritism