Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~75%; we estimate ~70%
• • Underdog would need >32.05% chance to be +EV at 3.12; we estimate ~30%

Pros

• + Clear favorite with clay-specific experience
• + Book prices are standard and liquid

Cons

• - Favorite price (1.333) offers negative EV versus our model
• - Underdog lacks recent form to justify the 3.12 price

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.333 implied ~75.0%) to our assessment. Based on both players' career records and surface histories, we estimate Pietro Romeo Scomparin is the stronger clay player but not quite as certain as the book implies. Scomparin has a better career win rate (10-15 vs 7-16) and more consistent clay experience; we place his true win probability at ~70%. That implies fair odds of ~1.429. The bookmaker price of 1.333 is too short relative to our 70% estimate (EV = 0.70*1.333 - 1 = -0.067), so the favorite contains negative expected value. The away player (Alessandro Coccioli) would need a true win probability > 0.3205 to be +EV at 3.12; we estimate his true chance at ~30% (career record and recent losses), below that threshold. Therefore neither side offers positive expected value at the available prices.

Key factors

• • Scomparin has superior clay-only experience and a better career record
• • Book market strongly favors the home player (implied 75%) — we assess it as overstated
• • Coccioli's career form and recent losses make his win chance below the 3.12 price break-even (~32.1%)