Highlights

• • Book implied probability for Tiffon: ~70.4%; our estimate: 74%
• • Surface experience (grass) is the principal advantage

Pros

• + Documented grass matches for Tiffon while Pieri has none in the provided data
• + Current market price (1.422) is above our breakeven threshold (1.351) for the estimated probability

Cons

• - Limited recent-form differentiation in the provided results; both show mixed results
• - No H2H, ranking, or injury details available — increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability for Pol Martin Tiffon (1.422 -> 70.35%) to our estimated true probability (74%). Key edges: Tiffon has recorded matches on grass while Pieri's documented history shows play on clay and hard only, which creates a surface-experience advantage for Tiffon in a grass qualifier. Their career win-loss totals are similar, but Tiffon's demonstrated grass experience and slightly larger match sample point to a modest edge. With our estimated win probability (0.74) the current decimal price 1.422 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.74*1.422 - 1 = +0.052). We note uncertainty from limited head-to-head and no injury info, so the edge is modest but present at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Pol Martin Tiffon has recorded matches on grass; Samuele Pieri does not in the provided data
• • Career records are similar but Tiffon's grass experience gives a surface edge in a grass qualifier
• • No head-to-head or injury information provided, so uncertainty remains