Pol Martin Tiffon vs Alejandro Moro Canas
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home player Pol Martin Tiffon at 2.25 — our model gives him ~52.5% to win, producing ~18% ROI on a 1-unit stake at current prices.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~44.4% for Pol at 2.25
- • We estimate Pol's win chance ~52.5%, creating positive EV
Pros
- + Clear numerical edge from win-rate differential
- + Odds provide >EV compared to our conservative probability estimate
Cons
- - Recent match results for both players are mixed, increasing variance
- - No head-to-head or detailed matchup stats in the provided research to further confirm edge
Details
We estimate Pol Martin Tiffon has a modest edge vs Alejandro Moro Canas on clay based on overall win-rate differential (Pol 28-22 vs Alejandro 30-33) and similar surface experience. The market gives Pol decimal 2.25 (implied probability ~44.4%). We estimate a true win probability for Pol of 52.5%, which exceeds the market's implied 44.4%, creating positive expected value. There are no injury notes in the provided research and both players show mixed recent form, so the value appears to stem primarily from Pol's superior overall win percentage and comparable clay experience rather than market-moving situational factors.
Key factors
- • Pol's superior overall win-loss ratio (28-22) vs Alejandro's (30-33)
- • Both players have clay experience and recent form is mixed, reducing situational variance
- • Market-implied probability (44.4%) is below our estimated true probability (52.5%)