Highlights

• • Implied probability for Pol = 67.2% vs our estimate 58.5%
• • Required odds for value on Pol: ≥ 1.709; current 1.488 is too short

Pros

• + Pol likely has a small grass-surface advantage
• + Both players have similar recent volume so matchup is close and predictable to some extent

Cons

• - Sample of grass matches is limited, increasing outcome variance
• - Market price is already short; current odds produce a negative EV

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Pol Martin Tiffon (1.488 -> 67.2%) to our assessment. Both players have similar career win rates (Pol 28-22, Ribecai 31-23) and recent form is mixed; Pol has at least some grass experience while Michele's profile shows little/unclear grass exposure. That gives Pol a modest surface edge, but not large enough to justify the market-implied 67% win probability. We estimate Pol's true win probability at ~58.5%, so the current price (1.488) is too short — it produces a negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.13 per unit). To be +EV we would need decimal odds ≥ 1.709 for Pol. Given the limited grass sample, similar records, and lack of clear injury or form advantage, we do not find value at the quoted prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies 67.2% for Pol (1/1.488) which is higher than our estimate
• • Pol has some grass experience; Ribecai's grass exposure is unclear — modest surface edge for Pol
• • Overall career records and recent form are similar, limiting the degree of confidence in a large edge