Highlights

• • Market heavily favors the home player (implied ~73.5%)
• • Our fair odds for the home player are ~1.724, well above the market

Pros

• + Both players have similar profiles so extreme market skew is suspect
• + If improved information emerges (injury/h2h/ranking) prices could move to value

Cons

• - Current favorite price is too short and yields negative EV
• - Provided data lacks decisive differentiators to justify backing the underdog

Details

We estimate Polina Bakhmutkina's true chance to win at roughly 58%. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and mixed results on clay/hard, with neither demonstrating form or clear advantages in the supplied data. The market price for Bakhmutkina (1.361) implies a ~73.5% win probability, which is substantially higher than our assessed 58%, so the favorite is overpriced from a bettor's perspective and offers negative expected value. To get positive EV on a Bakhmutkina back at our probability we'd need odds around 1.724 or higher. Given the lack of differentiating evidence (rankings, h2h, injury or surface edge) and both players' recent poor results, we decline to recommend a wager at current market prices.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surfaces played (10-21), limiting a clear edge
• • Market-implied probability for home (73.5%) is well above our estimated true probability (58%)
• • No decisive recent form, injury, or head-to-head data in the provided research to justify divergence from market