Polina Iatcenko vs Harmony Tan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value bet on Polina Iatcenko at 2.54 because the market understates her chances versus our conservative 45% estimate, producing an EV of +0.143 per unit staked.
Highlights
- • Market implies Iatcenko ~39.4%; we estimate ~45.0%
- • Required fair odds for value are ≥2.222; current price 2.54 exceeds that
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current price
- + Both players show similar form/records, reducing justification for heavy favorite
Cons
- - Both players have recent poor results, making true probability uncertain
- - Limited matchup-specific data (no H2H or clear surface edge) increases volatility
Details
We find value backing Polina Iatcenko at 2.54. The market implies Iatcenko has ~39.4% chance (1/2.54) while her recent profiles and head-to-head information in the provided research show both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface exposure, so the market’s heavy lean toward Harmony Tan (1.45) looks overstated. Given parity in wins/losses, lack of clear injury or surface advantage for Tan, and both players having poor recent results, we conservatively assign Iatcenko a 45.0% true win probability. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.222; the offered 2.54 therefore represents positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.54 - 1 = +0.143). We prefer the home side only because expected_value > 0 at the quoted price; betting Tan at 1.45 shows negative EV under our model.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface histories, suggesting a closer matchup than market implies
- • Market-implied probability for Iatcenko (39.4%) is materially below our estimated true probability (45.0%)
- • No explicit injury or surface advantage noted for Tan in the provided research to justify strong favorite pricing