Highlights

• • Market implies Polina ~63.6% but research doesn't support such a large gap
• • At our 48% estimate, Stakusic at 2.49 yields ~+19.5% ROI

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available away price
• + Assessment is conservative given the limited information available

Cons

• - Very limited and symmetric research data increases uncertainty around true probabilities
• - No H2H, ranking, or injury detail in the provided sources to reduce variance

Details

We compare the market prices (Polina Kudermetova 1.571, Marina Stakusic 2.49) to our estimated win chances based solely on the provided profiles. The research shows essentially identical records (10-21) and similar recent results and surface exposure for both players, so there is no clear performance-based reason to assign the market favorite a ~63.6% win probability. We assess the match as much closer to a coin flip and assign Marina Stakusic a true win probability of 48%. At decimal odds 2.49 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.49 - 1 = +0.195). By contrast, the favorite's market-implied probability (1/1.571 = 63.6%) exceeds any plausible true probability given the identical records and lack of distinguishing factors in the research, so betting the favorite lacks value. We therefore recommend the away side where the market price appears to overstate the favorite and underprice Stakusic.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical season records (10-21) and similar recent results in the provided data
• • Market prices imply a large edge for the home player that is not supported by the supplied profiles
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information in the research to justify the favorite’s pricing