Polina Iatchenko vs Harmony Tan

Highlights

• • Book market implies ~64.9% for Tan but her form suggests a much lower win chance
• • Home price 2.34 > min required 2.174 based on our conservative true-probability estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current available price (EV ≈ +7.6%)
• + Bet exploits clear discrepancy between Tan’s documented poor form and market pricing

Cons

• - Limited direct information on Polina Iatchenko increases model uncertainty
• - Small margin of value; outcome still sensitive to single-match variance

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our estimate based solely on the provided research. The market prices Harmony Tan at 1.541 (implied ~64.9%) and Polina Iatchenko at 2.34 (implied ~42.7%). The only detailed research available shows Harmony Tan in poor recent form (10-21 across the stated span with multiple recent losses), which suggests her true win probability here is considerably lower than the market-implied ~65%. There is limited information on Polina Iatchenko in the provided research, so we conservatively assume the home player is not a major mismatch. We estimate Polina’s true probability of winning at 0.46 (46%), which implies fair odds of 2.174; the current home price of 2.34 exceeds that threshold and yields positive expected value. Using the current decimal odds (2.34) for the home side, EV = 0.46 * 2.34 - 1 = +0.076 (7.6% ROI for a 1-unit stake). Given the apparent overpricing of Tan relative to her documented form and the lack of contrary data on the home player, the home line represents a value bet at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Harmony Tan’s provided recent form is poor (10-21 in the stated span with multiple recent losses), lowering her true win expectation
• • Market strongly favors Tan at 1.541 (implied ~64.9%); that appears overstated versus documented form
• • Limited public information on Polina Iatchenko in the research increases uncertainty but current home odds (2.34) offer a margin above our fair value estimate