Highlights

• • Home market implies ~87% chance, far above documented form
• • Break-even odds on our estimate would be ~3.096 (decimal)

Pros

• + We use the player's actual career record as the baseline for probability
• + Conservative approach given limited data on the opponent

Cons

• - Research set lacks any data on the opponent to adjust probability upward
• - Market may reflect information not in the provided research (making our edge uncertain)

Details

We compare the market price (Home 1.15, Away 5.00) to the limited performance data available for Poonthong Komopisut. His career record from the provided profile is 10-21 (31 matches) — a win rate of ~32.3% — and recent listed matches are losses. There is no information provided for Sergio Alejandro Gonzalez Ibanez to justify a heavy favorite price on Poonthong. Using Poonthong's documented career win rate as our baseline (since no opponent data is available), the implied true probability of Poonthong winning is far below the market-implied probability of ~87% (1/1.15). At the current home price (1.15) the expected value is strongly negative, so we do not recommend backing the favorite. We require at minimum about 3.096 decimal odds (implied ~32.3% win probability) to break even on our estimate for Poonthong; the market is well inside that, indicating no value. Given the absence of opponent stats and the mismatch between market odds and documented form, the prudent action is no bet.

Key factors

• • Poonthong Komopisut career win rate 10-21 (≈32.3%)
• • Recent documented results show losses and limited positive form
• • Market price (1.15) implies ~87% win probability, which is inconsistent with provided performance data